Today brings us the 2011 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga. It may also bring longshot Mambo Meister to Grade 1 victory. While Mambo may be better known for appearances in the Calder winners circle, he has shown up pretty well at Saratoga also.
The 6 YO gelding will likely be leaving the gate today with my bet on him. Of course, I'll have to see that he is fit and ready to take on this challenge today, before running to the window. But, I can easily do that by taking in the post parade and warm-up. If he looks as good as he usually does, I'm down. Mambo has the ability to win.
Sure, there are other horses in the race that you know better, and a couple of them could win too. But, Mambo Meister is the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick for the race. That alone is huge, it hasn't been long since an Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick has won a Stakes race at Saratoga either. Seems like just yesterday:
9/2/2011 SAR - Riskaverse S. , Stakes - #7 Elusive Pearl Velazquez John R. 117 19.80 10.20 7.10
Elusive Pearl also was 10-1 on the Morning Line.
I may be a bit biased, since the "Simple" pick does so well in high grade races. But, there is more at work here. Mambo Meister comes into the Woodward Stakes sporting a Commentator/Big Brown type of number. The managing general partner of Mambo Meister has said that Ability-X is the best rating that he has ever used, and since Mambo's career has been followed with Ability-X Ratings since he was 3.
I like to think that has played a role in his arrival today, to compete as a solid contender in the G1 Woodward Stakes.
It reminds me of when Mambo showed up for the Four Star Dave in 2009. Andy Serling demonstrated his genius with "I don't know why this horse is here", 15 minutes before Mambo Meister finished 2nd at 35-1.
If there are such questions today, I believe the answer is, because Mambo Meister can win it.
Well, the report came in this week, horse racing continues down the drain. All predictions are that it will continue to do so, if un-abated by some actual action to turn it around. All indications are that NOW is the time to hit the street running with any half decent plan that might bring new fans to the game.
After the display of insider betting at Saratoga yesterday, I have to wonder if the principles of horse racing could possibly take a break from abusing current fans/bettors to spend a little time and money to round-up some new ones. It seems that there is little chance of that happening, because the best way to round up new fans/bettors would be to fill the public in on how to play the horse racing game. Something that the principles seem to want to keep to themselves.
In my 35 years of observation, I would say that keeping the public in the dark about what the game really is, is what has brought horse racing to this point. Full lottery ticket lines, and empty seats at the horse racing venues. Millions of people taking up the lottery because they want to play a game, instead of being gamed, all of the time. Sure, players will lose their asses on lottery games too, but, at least the winning scratch-off cards aren't marked so that the convenience store owner can snag them while selling a dud to the customer.
This is what it comes down to for horse racing, the public perception is that of an unfair game, or a game played on them. At this point, the only turn around possible is to go beyond lame attempts at changing this perception, all the way to making this perception incorrect. The time has come to enthusiasticaly apply the one remedy that might bring two lost generations back to horse racing.
That one remedy, is for the race tracks to unhand their advantages in the betting arena, and equip the public to play the game, as opposed to playing games on the public.
Because it seems like the worst thing that anyone could do for their chances of winning, would be to handicap with conventional past performances. Ability is the only thing needed to make an intelligent betting decision, and that is the hardest thing to pry from conventional past performances.
But, with Ability-X Ratings, ability is what you get, right out there for you to see. I don't know about you, but, horse racing is a lot more fun for me when I can win better, and more often.
After all, the handicapping has always already been done. Get Ability-X Ratings for the winning part. Get them for all tracks for the whole month for $19.95. After that 1 month, you will know more about horse racing, and what wins the game you are playing.
I'd have to go with touts, it seems that to be qualified for the term "teachers", public handicappers would have had to have learned something about horse racing. In order to pass along a little knowledge, which is what teachers do. Seems like you would have to know something about the subject matter to teach it, at least if the students are going to gain anything.
Of course, in the sphere of horse racing, there seems to be a couple of things that everybody knows. One is, that the #7 horse will win the 7th race, unless you bet on it, and the public handicapper operates like a busted clock. Right about twice a day. And, when they are right, who cares anyway? Unless you enjoy fighting the crowd just to get 40 or 80 cents back out from the windows. I'm being harsh, we all know that the public handicapper can come up with 2 to 1 horses here and there. About twice a day, like a busted clock.
It is actually comical, the way these people come out and with a straight face, tout an even money horse as if it is the second coming of Secretariat. Only, to have some else offer the excuses when the losses occur about 8 times a day. The very next race, they are at it again, winding up a blatherous "good handicapping sense" analysis with "he's been running pretty well, lately." Whatever that is supposed to mean.
They never seem to learn any better, and just do the same thing over and over, while horses continue to win at all kinds of odds. But, the public handicapper always seems to be touting the same type of horse as always. As if they want you to fail right along with them. Of course they offer to teach, but what could a public handicapper have to teach? They seem most knowledgable in excuse making.
It seems that any player, knowing enough to know to bet against the public handicapper, would have little need for the excuses.
The middle jewel of the Triple Crown, and that only matters if one particular horse wins the 136th Preakness today. No wonder Maryland Racing has fallen on hard times, because of the overblown hype connected with horse racing, and its extraneous information overload, it is like this is the only race that takes place in Maryland. I wonder what percentage of the American public knows that there is other horse racing in Maryland.
But, this observation has more to do with the marketing of horse racing, and the geniuses that have held that job for the last 40 years or so. Today is about the Preakness. So, I wade into the sea of overblown hype to offer some slivers of information that hopefully are not extraneous and/or repetitive. Since anyone who cares has received an overload of majesty and pageantry info in connection with the Preakness, I will restrict my brief commentary today to the information pertaining to the betting.
It seems that Animal Kingdom is a legitimate favorite in this race, after running a circle around the Kentucky Derby field, it seems that a win today might be the normal and expected extension of that performance. While the Kentucky Derby performance was simply an extension of the Spiral Stakes. The replay of which I didn't watch, but my daughter did. I was thrilled with how my contenders for the Derby fell into place. Marie had 2 of my 4 on her list, but she also had another, Animal Kingdom.
For the past 16 years, it has been her job to go through the past performances to get the contenders for the Kentucky Derby, it has always then been my job to apply the race day analysis needed to come up with the winner. This has been my way of teaching her to be an analyst, instead of a handicapper. Apparently, she has become a good analyst in her own right. For the first time in five years, the Derby winner appeared on her list, and not mine. She watched the replay of the Spiral Stakes, I didn't.
Last night we both watched all of the replays that I thought were important, and we concurred that Animal Kingdom is the horse to beat today. We also concurred that the most likely candidate that could make that happen, is Flashpoint. The horse that we know the least about, because we are not taking the Florida Derby performance as negative, and then Flashpoint skipped the Derby.
After I went to bed, Marie ran the Ability-X Ratings for Pimlico today, and apparently watched some more replays. This morning I see that Flashpoint came up as the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick for the Preakness. while Animal Kindom is the "Key" horse. It all seems very appropriate to me. Last year, the "Key" was Looking at Lucky, and the "Simple" was Super Saver. But, Marie also added another to her list. A one-eyed, hard knocking gelding named Concealed Identity, that undoubtedly also has a bit of sand in his craw.
Exactly the kind of horse that I expected to show up back in April as all of the stars fell from the sky, one by one, before the Kentucky Derby. I feel like it makes an excellent trio for betting purposes. At the very least, these three should make for a good story to come out of this 136th Preakness Stakes.
I'm going to pay close attention to Marie's pre-race analysis later today too.
If the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick wins for a fourth straight. It could be a huge surprise, that is not all that surprising. The only bigger thing, that could happen, would be for the four horses that I referred to yesterday here, to be the superfecta. Some of it may not be the biggest surprise, but, all of it would be quite pleasant.
The greatest thing about the 137th Kentucky Derby is that there will be no losers in this event. Either on the track, or in the stands, everybody wins, because everybody is "all in" for this genuine horse race. It will be a great race. That is what counts. We will see the best, run their best, what could be better.
If you want to make some great bets today, without working hard, pick up Ability-X Ratings, so that you can win, not work, all day long. I've even been told that you might be able to score some Ability-X Ratings, right on Central Ave. across from the track. I've even got that Derby superfecta marked out for you, and the rest of the card has promise to. I hope for a good trip, and safe return, for all on this great 1st Saturday in May.
Even with the Ability-X Ratings Kentucky Derby Special listed at the left. How could this be another in the series of hard-hittin' Blog entries without some solid tips on playing the game of horse racing? Today, I'll give you one of the best physicality judgement tips that there is. And, anybody can get pretty good at it, pretty quick.
Watch the warm-ups, look for the horses that are busy moving around instead of walking around. Get an eye-full of any jogging with just horse and rider, no lead pony. Are the two moving as one? Do they both appear to have their minds on the matter at hand? Does it look almost like poetry in motion? You make the call, it could be the best bet of the day.
Who could say that there isn't transparency in horse racing, and take into consideration the Uncle Mo scratching from the 137th Kentucky Derby. Perhaps only the most well trained of faithful believers in the concept that it isn't all about the money. While it may be difficult to appreciate that fact on one end of the scale, tomorrow, we are blessed with the outcome of that fact, in the earnest "137th Run for the Roses."
Now that all of the faint-hearts have left the field, we can be left with a field of hard competitors, wishing only for a spot in the starting gate, and willing to risk everything for a chance at the glory of making the Kentucky Derby winners circle. This Kentucky Derby will be what horse racing is all about.
Everybody that is in, is all in, one Champion comes out. There are never any losers, because everyone that really wanted to be there, to compete, to go all-out, to take the test of measuring themselves against what they could be, will break from the gate on the first Saturday of May. All will make their best run for the money, and all that witness, will get the best run for their money. It is a great day for a horse race.
There couldn't be a better group of four contenders than those that are revealed by Ability-X Ratings, no need to worry about the boredom of the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick being the easy winner for the 4th consecutive year. Sure, I'll have to bet that horse for the sake of tradition, unless he is dragging his nose through the mud during the post parade. But, I've got to strongly consider the full range of Ability-X Ratings picks, if I want to have the winner.
The "Simple" pick will surprise you, and may surprise even more by winning tomorrow. Both the "Key" horse, and the "Double Simple" pick are hard-knocking performers that promise not to yield at any point, they will have to be beaten, if another is to prevail. The "Par" horse promises to make his steady, even run from the gate, to the wire, for all that he is worth.
It wouldn't surprise me if all four participate in a blanket photo finish, that will be discussed for decades. You wouldn't want to miss this Kentucky Derby, for #137, everybody is all in. And, there will be no losers.
The Ability-X Ratings Kentucky Derby special, to the left is still available, that is where you get Ability-X Ratings for Kentucky Oaks day, and Kentucky Derby day, and for the rest of May at Churchill Downs... Plus "Using Ability-X Ratings V" and "Exacta Magic II" and "Winning the Pick3".... all for the same $9.95, and I will include the ratings from the 2008 - 2010 Kentucky Derbys.
All the ground work has been laid, the scratching seems inevitable now, since the latest statement has been, if he runs, he wins. Looks like he is a definite goner.
So, that leaves us in about the same spot as to which one will win. With or without Uncle Mo, the 137th Kentucky Derby shapes up as a genuine horse race. I always like it that way, even though the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick has won the past 3 years, it can be fun to muse about the strategies for 15 - 20 minutes while you await the ratings.
It seems that the big strategy question is, who will throw caution out the window by figuring that going "hell for leather" from the gate, thinking that has to be the advantage with this field. Then, as all jaws drop, when it is some horse, totally unexpected... the grandstand debate on whether your pick should chase, or sit chilly, can get into full swing. At least up to the 3/8's pole.
At that point, hopefully your horse is starting to go forward, and not back. Then as your excitement builds as you watch your favored son pick off leaders approaching the 1/4, you can pull for your boy to come through the hole and run for the glory. Hopefully you have been on the winner from the post parade, and you don't wind up with the Bob Baffert surprise like last year. as you mutter, through the disappointment, oh no, it's that freakin' Calvin Borel. Because, no matter what anybody does, "Boo" has always got a shot.
I'll still wait for my numbers, but on handicapping criteria, I would say, take the strongest look at the steadiest runners that have shown that they can stay all the way. Archarcharch, Shackleford, Nehro... and Calvin Borel are the names that come to my mind, in the handicapping perspective.
Today's unbelievable Ability-X Ratings deal, is All-Tracks Today with "Using Ability-X Ratings IV" and "Exacta Magic II" tossed in for FREE. It's a lot of winning for $9.95.
Then there is the 137th Kentucky Derby Special, to the left, that is where you get Ability-X Ratings for Kentucky Oaks Day, and Kentucky Derby day, and for the rest of May at Churchill Downs... Plus "Using Ability-X Ratings V" and "Exacta Magic II" and "Winning the Pick3".... all for the same $9.95.
Because at HorsePlayerU.com, it's about you having a blast playing horses.... and winning!
Now, the race might begin to shape up as post positions are drawn, and we can know where the contenders will be running from. With no shortage of contenders, post position may not be so critical for this Kentucky Derby, unless every horse wants to go for the lead, and run shoulder to shoulder throughout. I doubt that will be the case, when the gate opens, but, it would add an interesting twist to this Kentucky Derby.
I think it would make a great race to fully earn the consternation of speed handicappers, if no one wants the lead. I've always been amazed that the Kentucky Derby can be presented by handicappers as a "speed" affair anyway. Sure, your best contender will have "speed", but, it will need speed control, more than speed itself. That is the harder part. And, perhaps the most difficult lesson to teach a young horse, that does not come upon it with a natural talent for it.
All race horses have speed, the two part test of the Kentucky Derby is which horse, and horsemen, have done the best job of learning and teaching "speed control". They can all get the 1 and 1/4 mile distance, the question is "which one has the control to get it, better than the rest?"
Tomorrow, we can take a good hard look at this question, knowing who starts where. To begin our analysis, in earnest..... I might even bring Ernest in for consultation, so be prepared.
Man, with all of the hoopla, and me running late, I'm wondering how much writing I'll be able to do on the 2011 Kentucky Derby. I guess to get off to a good start, I'll have to figure out who is left in the race. Maybe someone has got a current list.
Thank goodness the analysis will only take 5 or 10 minutes. I do have my youngest daughter rounding up the contenders for me, she has been doing a fine job since she was 12. She is 28 now. Then, the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick has won the past 3 years, despite her getting hung up briefly on "Chocalate Candy" a couple of years ago.
I also strongly suspect that Street Sense may have been the 2007 "Simple" pick, and if I get time to run that file, I'll get back to you on that. But, I will take a look at the last 4 years in my analysis, because they cover the brilliant reinsmanship of one Calvin "Boo" Borel. With all that is discussed and re-hashed from the handicapper's perspective, on this race, there is never near enough said about the horsemen involved, and the huge role that they play in winning the Run for the Roses.
So stay tuned, I will start blogging in earnest, very soon. And, Ability-X Ratings for both the Kentucky Oaks and Derby day will be available, also including the past 3 years for your comparisons, in the search for the winning numbers.
In just a few hours, Churchill Downs will be starting the 2011 edition of Kentucky Derby fever. Most people like to get the earliest possible start, I like to wait until the gates open. Which will be just a few hours.
To celebrate, properly, and with recognition that the last three Kentucky Derby winners have been the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick. The All-tracks edition for today is available for $1. Nowhere near its immense value, but who has that kind of cash anyway?
I will be offering my perspectives on all the festivities throughout the week, and today's special is just the beginning. There is plenty more where that came from, and I expect to whip it all out as this special week progresses.
It just looks to me like maybe the longshots are going to let it rip today at Keeneland. It would be nice to end the festival de chalk, that has been the current spring meet, on a rip-snorting, light-up the board kind of day. People would be getting their fall gear together by July in anticipation of another go, at Keeneland.
Yesterday, two "Key" winners, and 1 winning "Simple" pick only added up to $15.00, profits from one Pick3 win supplied a few more dollars. The $50 winners have been a little on the scarce side this meeting.
Pimlico provided a "Simple" pick for $38.40 yesterday, and Tampa was lukewarm on the 27th also. The good thing about the lukewarm days is, that usually the pendulum swings back on the next day. So be prepared today. It could be a good one.
As is, often the case. Especially when there is a past performance format that is also an accurate measure of a thoroughbred's ability to run the distance today. Wouldn't it be nice, if everybody on the grounds, and on the planet had that kind of information? Wouldn't it be even nicer that such a format would allow and promote a legion of players, that knew how to play the game?
I would imagine that such a thing would grow the sport of horse racing to the point of being once again, the number one leisure time activity in all of North America. Well beyond the wildest expectations of those visionaries that founded Keeneland in 1936.
I once suggested that horse racing should actively teach people how to play the game, with simple information that would allow them to make intelligent wagers. Even if those people knew nothing about handicapping, and didn't want to know. A sentiment expressed widely by those of the younger set.
Today, I daresay that I still hold with this idea, I still believe that an interest in the game could quickly become a life-long interest in the sport. If only, that interest in the game were appealed to with simple, effective information. The kind that would enable players to be winners, more often, than not.
As the entire industry cringes at the truthful expression of my honest thoughts, at this point, I can't help but to wonder, why? The evidence is getting awfully old, and new evidence comes to all of us everyday. I guess that its okay if the industry wants to keep its collective head buried in a place where light doesn't penetrate. But, that is no good reason why players shouldn't drop their scratch-off nickels, to come a runnin' back to horse racing. The betting game that beats all others, hands down.... all day long.
If, you can just realize that the handicapping is already done. The player simply needs to make a betting decision. The evidence constantly shows, that isn't hard, and maybe it is even better, if it just makes basic sense. To hell with good handicapping sense... nobody can cash enough on "supposed to".
There are only a couple of "supposed to's" that really are supposed to be adhered to anyway. Horse racing is supposed to be FUN. And, it is supposed to be easy to make a betting decision, and a bet, with a chance to win. When the industry is done cringing, I hope that they can see, it is not too late to apply the KISS principle to horse racing.
Or, at least institute a change from, "kiss my butt, that information format wasn't obsolete in the '70's, and it is supposed to be still worth $10."
Because the 21st century truth is, that it isn't worth a bucket of spit if people are not easily having fun with it. And, gaining a reasonable chance to win, by using it. Simple.
Take, as an example, the races just last night at Charles Town Races, now called "Hollywood Casino". As if anybody has a shot, at a Casino. Cringe away, I play horses because it is still the best gaming deal there is. For these reasons:
HorsePlayerU.com - Ability-X Ratings
Tuesday 4/26/2011 - Charles Town - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 200+. The number in orange is the Ability-X rating "key" horse, and the one in red is the Ability-X "Simple"pick. I usually bet the simple pick.
Anybody could have picked this information up for $1.97, and decided to just bet the "Simple" pick to win, or, if they were out for fun and adventure, just bet the "Simple" and "Key" in the Pick-3 for 2x2x2 = 8 x $2 = $16 to be bet. The $3,307 return could have provided a lot of fun for several people. Without them having to burn up any brain cells, or strain any eyeballs, with handicapping.
As you say, "that must be a one time lucky shot", I invite you to scroll down the Twitter feed to see that the "Simple" pick, and "Key" horse win with amazingly consistent frequency, every day. Usually, at prices that are just not normally available to past performance handicappers. That obsolete format usually sticks them all on the same horse with the good looking record. The one that has been "running well lately", whatever that means in dollars and cents. Usually, not much.
Outlandish claim? The evidence continues:
5th 4.5fD Par 300/97
3 $25.60 $13.20 $7.40
1 . $50.80 $20.20
Run#
PST
ErlSpd
ML
Comp
421
5
97
3
518
364
4
96
8
460
361
1
96
15
457
416
9
95
12
511
416
10
95
6
511
326
2
91
2
417
447
6
91
20
538
120
8
0
4
120
110
3
0
10
110
117
7
0
12
117
7th 7fD Par 200/90
8 $49.40 $25.20 $19.40
Run#
PST
ErlSpd
ML
Comp
214
8
100
20
314
190
6
96
15
286
208
3
93
4
301
255
9
93
12
348
202
1
93
8
295
185
7
91
4
276
220
4
90
20
310
178
10
89
10
267
190
2
87
3
277
191
5
83
5
274
8th 4.5fD Par 300/97
1 $14.20 $6.80 $5.20
Run#
PST
ErlSpd
ML
Comp
411
4
101
5
512
345
1
100
3
445
427
3
100
6
527
407
10
100
6
507
281
5
98
10
379
352
2
98
4
450
402
7
97
5
499
388
6
96
12
484
371
8
95
12
466
298
11
93
8
391
While the guru's and practitioners of past performance handicapping have proclaimed that you need to be smart to play the horses, and they are, obviously the "really" smart people. Because they handicap and can tell you why their horse lost. You know, the one that was "supposed" to win.
It would be painfully obvious to the dumbest player on the planet, that the "Simple" pick is a good bet. Even if that world champion dumbass couldn't come to that conclusion, he or she could just bet, because it is the "Simple" pick.
You don't need to be smart, in order to have fun, and win at the horse races, if you can just realize that the handicapping is already done.
It turns out now, after all of the people that did realize that have been chased off to the lottery line, that they may have been the smartest people in the grandstand. They still are not letting handicapping get in the way of betting and having fun.
9th 7fD Par 200/90
8 Little Runner
13.60 7.20 4.60
4 Woo Woo Ann
15.00 6.80
$2 Exacta $160.20 8-4
$2 Pk3 $10,619.40 8-1-8
Run#
PST
ErlSpd
ML
Comp
215
1
96
6
311
210
8
95
4
305
168
2
95
3
263
230
10
92
20
322
288
6
91
15
379
242
11
91
10
333
257
9
90
10
347
228
5
90
4
318
210
4
89
15
299
228
7
86
4
314
Seems to me, that if the marketers of horse racing were smart enough to not stumble into a ditch, we could figure out a way to drop the "brainiac" requirement, and bring them all back to horse racing.
