136th Preakness Stakes

The middle jewel of the Triple Crown, and that only matters if one particular horse wins the 136th Preakness today. No wonder Maryland Racing has fallen on hard times, because of the overblown hype connected with horse racing, and its extraneous information overload, it is like this is the only race that takes place in Maryland. I wonder what percentage of the American public knows that there is other horse racing in Maryland.

But, this observation has more to do with the marketing of horse racing, and the geniuses that have held that job for the last 40 years or so. Today is about the Preakness. So, I wade into the sea of overblown hype to offer some slivers of information that hopefully are not extraneous and/or repetitive. Since anyone who cares has received an overload of majesty and pageantry info in connection with the Preakness, I will restrict my brief commentary today to the information pertaining to the betting.

It seems that Animal Kingdom is a legitimate favorite in this race, after running a circle around the Kentucky Derby field, it seems that a win today might be the normal and expected extension of that performance. While the Kentucky Derby performance was simply an extension of the Spiral Stakes. The replay of which I didn't watch, but my daughter did. I was thrilled with how my contenders for the Derby fell into place. Marie had 2 of my 4 on her list, but she also had another, Animal Kingdom.

For the past 16 years, it has been her job to go through the past performances to get the contenders for the Kentucky Derby, it has always then been my job to apply the race day analysis needed to come up with the winner. This has been my way of teaching her to be an analyst, instead of a handicapper. Apparently, she has become a good analyst in her own right. For the first time in five years, the Derby winner appeared on her list, and not mine. She watched the replay of the Spiral Stakes, I didn't.

Last night we both watched all of the replays that I thought were important, and we concurred that Animal Kingdom is the horse to beat today. We also concurred that the most likely candidate that could make that happen, is Flashpoint. The horse that we know the least about, because we are not taking the Florida Derby performance as negative, and then Flashpoint skipped the Derby.

After I went to bed, Marie ran the Ability-X Ratings for Pimlico today, and apparently watched some more replays. This morning I see that Flashpoint came up as the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick for the Preakness. while Animal Kindom is the "Key" horse. It all seems very appropriate to me. Last year, the "Key" was Looking at Lucky, and the "Simple" was Super Saver. But, Marie also added another to her list. A one-eyed, hard knocking gelding named Concealed Identity, that undoubtedly also has a bit of sand in his craw.

Exactly the kind of horse that I expected to show up back in April as all of the stars fell from the sky, one by one, before the Kentucky Derby. I feel like it makes an excellent trio for betting purposes. At the very least, these three should make for a good story to come out of this 136th Preakness Stakes.

I'm going to pay close attention to Marie's pre-race analysis later today too.

137th BIG Race... could get even bigger

If the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick wins for a fourth straight. It could be a huge surprise, that is not all that surprising. The only bigger thing, that could happen, would be for the four horses that I referred to yesterday here, to be the superfecta. Some of it may not be the biggest surprise, but, all of it would be quite pleasant.

The greatest thing about the 137th Kentucky Derby is that there will be no losers in this event. Either on the track, or in the stands, everybody wins, because everybody is "all in" for this genuine horse race. It will be a great race. That is what counts. We will see the best, run their best, what could be better.

If you want to make some great bets today, without working hard, pick up Ability-X Ratings, so that you can win, not work, all day long. I've even been told that you might be able to score some Ability-X Ratings, right on Central Ave. across from the track. I've even got that Derby superfecta marked out for you, and the rest of the card has promise to. I hope for a good trip, and safe return, for all on this great 1st Saturday in May.

Even with the Ability-X Ratings Kentucky Derby Special listed at the left. How could this be another in the series of hard-hittin' Blog entries without some solid tips on playing the game of horse racing? Today, I'll give you one of the best physicality judgement tips that there is. And, anybody can get pretty good at it, pretty quick.

Watch the warm-ups, look for the horses that are busy moving around instead of walking around. Get an eye-full of any jogging with just horse and rider, no lead pony. Are the two moving as one? Do they both appear to have their minds on the matter at hand? Does it look almost like poetry in motion? You make the call, it could be the best bet of the day.

We have transparency in racing.

Who could say that there isn't transparency in horse racing, and take into consideration the Uncle Mo scratching from the 137th Kentucky Derby. Perhaps only the most well trained of faithful believers in the concept that it isn't all about the money. While it may be difficult to appreciate that fact on one end of the scale, tomorrow, we are blessed with the outcome of that fact, in the earnest "137th Run for the Roses."

Now that all of the faint-hearts have left the field, we can be left with a field of hard competitors, wishing only for a spot in the starting gate, and willing to risk everything for a chance at the glory of making the Kentucky Derby winners circle. This Kentucky Derby will be what horse racing is all about.

Everybody that is in, is all in, one Champion comes out. There are never any losers, because everyone that really wanted to be there, to compete, to go all-out, to take the test of measuring themselves against what they could be, will break from the gate on the first Saturday of May. All will make their best run for the money, and all that witness, will get the best run for their money. It is a great day for a horse race.

There couldn't be a better group of four contenders than those that are revealed by Ability-X Ratings, no need to worry about the boredom of the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick being the easy winner for the 4th consecutive year. Sure, I'll have to bet that horse for the sake of tradition, unless he is dragging his nose through the mud during the post parade. But, I've got to strongly consider the full range of Ability-X Ratings picks, if I want to have the winner.

The "Simple" pick will surprise you, and may surprise even more by winning tomorrow. Both the "Key" horse, and the "Double Simple" pick are hard-knocking performers that promise not to yield at any point, they will have to be beaten, if another is to prevail. The "Par" horse promises to make his steady, even run from the gate, to the wire, for all that he is worth.

It wouldn't surprise me if all four participate in a blanket photo finish, that will be discussed for decades. You wouldn't want to miss this Kentucky Derby, for #137, everybody is all in. And, there will be no losers.

The Ability-X Ratings Kentucky Derby special, to the left is still available, that is where you get Ability-X Ratings for Kentucky Oaks day, and Kentucky Derby day, and for the rest of May at Churchill Downs... Plus "Using Ability-X Ratings V" and "Exacta Magic II" and "Winning the Pick3".... all for the same $9.95, and I will include the ratings from the 2008 - 2010 Kentucky Derbys.

When will Uncle Mo scratch?

All the ground work has been laid, the scratching seems inevitable now, since the latest statement has been, if he runs, he wins. Looks like he is a definite goner.

So, that leaves us in about the same spot as to which one will win. With or without Uncle Mo, the 137th Kentucky Derby shapes up as a genuine horse race. I always like it that way, even though the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick has won the past 3 years, it can be fun to muse about the strategies for 15 - 20 minutes while you await the ratings.

It seems that the big strategy question is, who will throw caution out the window by figuring that going "hell for leather" from the gate, thinking that has to be the advantage with this field. Then, as all jaws drop, when it is some horse, totally unexpected... the grandstand debate on whether your pick should chase, or sit chilly, can get into full swing. At least up to the 3/8's pole.

At that point, hopefully your horse is starting to go forward, and not back. Then as your excitement builds as you watch your favored son pick off leaders approaching the 1/4, you can pull for your boy to come through the hole and run for the glory. Hopefully you have been on the winner from the post parade, and you don't wind up with the Bob Baffert surprise like last year. as you mutter, through the disappointment, oh no, it's that freakin' Calvin Borel. Because, no matter what anybody does, "Boo" has always got a shot.

I'll still wait for my numbers, but on handicapping criteria, I would say, take the strongest look at the steadiest runners that have shown that they can stay all the way. Archarcharch, Shackleford, Nehro... and Calvin Borel are the names that come to my mind, in the handicapping perspective.

Today's unbelievable Ability-X Ratings deal, is All-Tracks Today with "Using Ability-X Ratings IV" and "Exacta Magic II" tossed in for FREE. It's a lot of winning for $9.95.

Then there is the 137th Kentucky Derby Special, to the left, that is where you get Ability-X Ratings for Kentucky Oaks Day, and Kentucky Derby day, and for the rest of May at Churchill Downs... Plus "Using Ability-X Ratings V" and "Exacta Magic II" and "Winning the Pick3".... all for the same $9.95.

Because at HorsePlayerU.com, it's about you having a blast playing horses.... and winning!

Kentucky Derby post draw today..

Now, the race might begin to shape up as post positions are drawn, and we can know where the contenders will be running from. With no shortage of contenders, post position may not be so critical for this Kentucky Derby, unless every horse wants to go for the lead, and run shoulder to shoulder throughout. I doubt that will be the case, when the gate opens, but, it would add an interesting twist to this Kentucky Derby.

I think it would make a great race to fully earn the consternation of speed handicappers, if no one wants the lead. I've always been amazed that the Kentucky Derby can be presented by handicappers as a "speed" affair anyway. Sure, your best contender will have "speed", but, it will need speed control, more than speed itself. That is the harder part. And, perhaps the most difficult lesson to teach a young horse, that does not come upon it with a natural talent for it.

All race horses have speed, the two part test of the Kentucky Derby is which horse, and horsemen, have done the best job of learning and teaching "speed control". They can all get the 1 and 1/4 mile distance, the question is "which one has the control to get it, better than the rest?"

Tomorrow, we can take a good hard look at this question, knowing who starts where. To begin our analysis, in earnest..... I might even bring Ernest in for consultation, so be prepared.


Also today, I am kicking in a copy of "ExactaMagic2" with every Ability-X Ratings - All - Tracks.

Yesterday, 4 Ability-X "Simple" picks won at Churchill Downs returning $50.60 to all of those that know, simplicity wins.

It's all about the Kentucky Derby

Man, with all of the hoopla, and me running late, I'm wondering how much writing I'll be able to do on the 2011 Kentucky Derby. I guess to get off to a good start, I'll have to figure out who is left in the race. Maybe someone has got a current list.

Thank goodness the analysis will only take 5 or 10 minutes. I do have my youngest daughter rounding up the contenders for me, she has been doing a fine job since she was 12. She is 28 now. Then, the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick has won the past 3 years, despite her getting hung up briefly on "Chocalate Candy" a couple of years ago.

I also strongly suspect that Street Sense may have been the 2007 "Simple" pick, and if I get time to run that file, I'll get back to you on that. But, I will take a look at the last 4 years in my analysis, because they cover the brilliant reinsmanship of one Calvin "Boo" Borel. With all that is discussed and re-hashed from the handicapper's perspective, on this race, there is never near enough said about the horsemen involved, and the huge role that they play in winning the Run for the Roses.

So stay tuned, I will start blogging in earnest, very soon. And, Ability-X Ratings for both the Kentucky Oaks and Derby day will be available, also including the past 3 years for your comparisons, in the search for the winning numbers.

Also, don't forget, Ability-X Ratings - All-Tracks is available today, and includes the Churchill Downs card for today.

These Ebooks also include 1 month of  Ability-X Ratings - All-Tracks, the lowest price for the whole Triple Crown.