When will Uncle Mo scratch?

All the ground work has been laid, the scratching seems inevitable now, since the latest statement has been, if he runs, he wins. Looks like he is a definite goner.

So, that leaves us in about the same spot as to which one will win. With or without Uncle Mo, the 137th Kentucky Derby shapes up as a genuine horse race. I always like it that way, even though the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick has won the past 3 years, it can be fun to muse about the strategies for 15 - 20 minutes while you await the ratings.

It seems that the big strategy question is, who will throw caution out the window by figuring that going "hell for leather" from the gate, thinking that has to be the advantage with this field. Then, as all jaws drop, when it is some horse, totally unexpected... the grandstand debate on whether your pick should chase, or sit chilly, can get into full swing. At least up to the 3/8's pole.

At that point, hopefully your horse is starting to go forward, and not back. Then as your excitement builds as you watch your favored son pick off leaders approaching the 1/4, you can pull for your boy to come through the hole and run for the glory. Hopefully you have been on the winner from the post parade, and you don't wind up with the Bob Baffert surprise like last year. as you mutter, through the disappointment, oh no, it's that freakin' Calvin Borel. Because, no matter what anybody does, "Boo" has always got a shot.

I'll still wait for my numbers, but on handicapping criteria, I would say, take the strongest look at the steadiest runners that have shown that they can stay all the way. Archarcharch, Shackleford, Nehro... and Calvin Borel are the names that come to my mind, in the handicapping perspective.

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