Handicapping... maybe the worst way to a betting decision.

As the entire industry cringes at the truthful expression of my honest thoughts, at this point, I can't help but to wonder, why? The evidence is getting awfully old, and new evidence comes to all of us everyday. I guess that its okay if the industry wants to keep its collective head buried in a place where light doesn't penetrate. But, that is no good reason why players shouldn't drop their scratch-off nickels, to come a runnin' back to horse racing. The betting game that beats all others, hands down.... all day long.




If, you can just realize that the handicapping is already done. The player simply needs to make a betting decision. The evidence constantly shows, that isn't hard, and maybe it is even better, if it just makes basic sense. To hell with good handicapping sense... nobody can cash enough on "supposed to".




There are only a couple of "supposed to's" that really are supposed to be adhered to anyway. Horse racing is supposed to be FUN. And, it is supposed to be easy to make a betting decision, and a bet, with a chance to win. When the industry is done cringing, I hope that they can see, it is not too late to apply the KISS principle to horse racing.




Or, at least institute a change from, "kiss my butt, that information format wasn't obsolete in the '70's, and it is supposed to be still worth $10."




Because the 21st century truth is, that it isn't worth a bucket of spit if people are not easily having fun with it. And, gaining a reasonable chance to win, by using it. Simple.




Take, as an example, the races just last night at Charles Town Races, now called "Hollywood Casino". As if anybody has a shot, at a Casino. Cringe away, I play horses because it is still the best gaming deal there is. For these reasons:

HorsePlayerU.com - Ability-X Ratings

Tuesday 4/26/2011 - Charles Town  - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 200+. The number in orange is the Ability-X rating "key" horse, and the one in red is the Ability-X "Simple"pick. I usually bet the simple pick.

1st 4.5fD Par 300/97 4    $7.40    $3.80    $3.20 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 365 4 99 6 464 411 6 97 3 508 446 8 97 2 543 428 1 95 10 523 355 5 94 20 449 383 10 92 5 475 321 3 88 12 409 413 9 86 12 499 131 2 0 8 131 131 7 0 8 131

2nd 8.5fD Par 100/90 2    $40.20    $13.80    $12.60 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 167 2 97 15 264 128 5 95 10 223 143 8 95 3 238 142 4 93 6 235 92 10 93 4 185 138 7 92 4 230 106 9 92 5 198 117 6 92 10 209 119 1 91 8 210 99 3 90 20 189

3rd 4.5fD Par 300/97 2    $31.20    $14.00    $9.20 $2 Pk3    4/2/2   $3307.00 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 407 1 98 6 505 471 4 95 10 566 366 8 95 20 461 433 9 94 3 527 430 10 93 15 523 458 3 92 10 550 349 2 92 12 441 440 7 92 4 532 120 6 0 5 120 109 5 0 4 109

Anybody could have picked this information up for $1.97, and decided to just bet the "Simple" pick to win, or, if they were out for fun and adventure, just bet the "Simple" and "Key" in the Pick-3 for 2x2x2 = 8 x $2 = $16 to be bet. The $3,307 return could have provided a lot of fun for several people. Without them having to burn up any brain cells, or strain any eyeballs, with handicapping.

As you say, "that must be a one time lucky shot", I invite you to scroll down the Twitter feed to see that the "Simple" pick, and "Key" horse win with amazingly consistent frequency, every day. Usually, at prices that are just not normally available to past performance handicappers. That obsolete format usually sticks them all on the same horse with the good looking record. The one that has been "running well lately", whatever that means in dollars and cents. Usually, not much.

Outlandish claim? The evidence continues:

5th 4.5fD Par 300/97 3    $25.60    $13.20    $7.40 1    .    $50.80    $20.20 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 421 5 97 3 518 364 4 96 8 460 361 1 96 15 457 416 9 95 12 511 416 10 95 6 511 326 2 91 2 417 447 6 91 20 538 120 8 0 4 120 110 3 0 10 110 117 7 0 12 117

7th 7fD Par 200/90 8    $49.40    $25.20    $19.40 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 214 8 100 20 314 190 6 96 15 286 208 3 93 4 301 255 9 93 12 348 202 1 93 8 295 185 7 91 4 276 220 4 90 20 310 178 10 89 10 267 190 2 87 3 277 191 5 83 5 274

8th 4.5fD Par 300/97 1    $14.20    $6.80    $5.20 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 411 4 101 5 512 345 1 100 3 445 427 3 100 6 527 407 10 100 6 507 281 5 98 10 379 352 2 98 4 450 402 7 97 5 499 388 6 96 12 484 371 8 95 12 466 298 11 93 8 391

While the guru's and practitioners of past performance handicapping have proclaimed that you need to be smart to play the horses, and they are, obviously the "really" smart people. Because they handicap and can tell you why their horse lost. You know, the one that was "supposed" to win.

It would be painfully obvious to the dumbest player on the planet, that the "Simple" pick is a good bet. Even if that world champion dumbass couldn't come to that conclusion, he or she could just bet, because it is the "Simple" pick.

You don't need to be smart, in order to have fun, and win at the horse races, if you can just realize that the handicapping is already done. 

It turns out now, after all of the people that did realize that have been chased off to the lottery line, that they may have been the smartest people in the grandstand. They still are not letting handicapping get in the way of betting and having fun.

9th 7fD Par 200/90 8    Little Runner  13.60    7.20    4.60 4    Woo Woo Ann  15.00  6.80 $2 Exacta   $160.20      8-4 $2 Pk3 $10,619.40     8-1-8 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 215 1 96 6 311 210 8 95 4 305 168 2 95 3 263 230 10 92 20 322 288 6 91 15 379 242 11 91 10 333 257 9 90 10 347 228 5 90 4 318 210 4 89 15 299 228 7 86 4 314

Seems to me, that if the marketers of horse racing were smart enough to not stumble into a ditch, we could figure out a way to drop the "brainiac" requirement, and bring them all back to horse racing.