I remember thinking back in 2007, that all I should have to do is to get this in front of people and they will just be playing up a storm and flocking back to horse racing just for the fun of winning without trying that hard. But, it seems the past performance publishing industry has horseplayers wound up so tight and working so hard to have fun with 1-1 favorites, many of the simple things about horse racing go un-noticed. Looking back, I suppose I was pretty naive in my understanding of other players back then.
Or, maybe it has just been so long ago that I was a handicapper myself.
In my efforts to explain myself, and expose Ability-X Ratings to handicappers, I have actually gotten caught up in trying to fit my methods and my philosophy into the box of past performance handicapping. It just doesn't fit. So, I've got to come back to the beginning, with the original message, and re-explain from there. The low ratings are generally better, and the lowest rating will just plain win consistently. About a third of the time it will pay boxcar mutuels, at all kinds of racetracks. That is, just the start.
In recent days, there have been "Low" rating payoffs of $57.40 at Pimlico, $48.20 at Tampa Bay, $89.20 at Tampa Bay, and $80.80 at Woodbine, $53.20 in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. If you would like to look at the list -
http://Twitter.com/TrackSideEye, it's there for you.
This one, is always fun too. I have been asked why the low rating doesn't win every race, and the best answer I have found is that it is probably the same reason that the past performance handicapping favorite doesn't win every race.
But, unlike the often overbet past performance handicapping favorite, you can just bet the "Low" Ability-X Rating and the results will not drive you to the poor-house. However, they will teach you about horse racing. As that happens, you will quickly gain enough knowledge to start analyzing the race effectively with only the Ability-X Ratings chart. Because that is all that you need to make intelligent bets on horse racing. Most of the information contained in the format of past performances has no predictive value for today's race.
You may doubt that, because you've always heard different, and I will suggest that if it were not true, the results above wouldn't have been going on as long as you can remember. Something that I hope you will think about while I continue to make my case.
The simple truth is that there was never an advantage in past performance handicapping, everyone is looking at the same information, in the same format, and pretty much drawing the same conclusions. For picking a winner, it is all a waste of time and money. Playing the game is making a betting decision, the handicapping has always been already done, 1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice, or 4th. Which one do you like? Sound familiar?
Pick one, any reason is a good reason. The problem is that no matter the Morning Line Odds, the choices are usually all over-bet, even when you pick the right one, the return is too often, too little. The satisfaction may make it worthwhile, but, when the time comes that you want to go beyond 3 winners out of 9 at 2-1, that satisfaction is worn out. As a player, you want to be able to play, and win with horses at 5-1, 10-1, and 20-1. That is the game, that is where the fun and the long-lasting satisfaction is.
The truth is that horses will win with these odds, at the same percentage (33%), and the same consistency as the post-time favorite. But, that truth will never be recognized by the horse racing information industry, because that horse can not be recognized positively in the format of past performances. It is outside of the scope of past performance handicapping, which has always suffered from this severe limit. The reason? Because position, beaten lengths, time, class level, stable/trainer angles do not reliably reveal the horses ability to run the distance today, not any more than around 33% of the time. The expectation that ability will be revealed in these measurements is completely unrealistic, and completely out of harmony with the game of horse racing.
When you are stuck, by past performance handicapping methods, with betting this group, your struggle for fun, and satisfaction is ensured. As you continue to struggle, you soon realize that there is no fun, or satisfaction in struggling. In life, you can get all of that, simply by gassing up the car. Your horse racing time is supposed to be an escape from all of that.
I suggest that you can escape the struggle, at least in your leisure-time horse racing adventures, by simply dis-continuing the struggle of past performance handicapping. Replace that with the fun of knowing that the handicapping is, already done. And, the satisfaction of taking full advantage of that fact in a leisurely way. This is easy to do, and very rewarding, since it never fails to provide what you came to horse racing for, fun and satisfaction.
For anyone that can sign on to the "fun and satisfaction" philosophy, there is even a group of wagers tailor made for fun-lovers on the prowl, looking to pardy hardy with horse racing. The Daily Double, the Pick3, and the Pick4/5/6. Potential life-changers, where bringing the right attitude may be more important than anything else.
| Saturday 3/12/2011 - Gulfstream Park - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 200+. The number in orange is the Ability-X rating "key" horse, and the one in red is the Ability-X "Simple"pick. I usually bet the simple pick. |
1st 8fT Par 100/85
1 $37.00 $13.00 $5.00
4 . $3.80 $2.40
$1.00 Exacta 1-4 $66.30 | 2nd 9fD Par 120/90
7 $7.40 $4.80 $2.60 | 3rd 8fT Par 100/85
14 $66.40 $21.00 $9.40
$1Pk3 $3,306.30 1-7-14
$2 Daily Dbl $346.60 7-14 | 4th 8fD Par 200/90
5 $42.20 $15.80 $7.40
$1 Pk3 $9,695.90 7-14-5
$2 Daily Dbl $1,536.80 14-5 |
To demonstrate along that point, I'd like to review with you, this recent Saturday card from Gulfstream Park. As you can see,
Ability-X Ratings come right out of the software with 2 picks, ready to go. Although they are chosen by the program with a mechanical process, they are always consistent in winning at the full scale of odds. Rather than try to "figure out" the winner, the program simply gives you two horses whose ability to run today's distance says that they are likely winners. With that one minute operation, the handicapping is done and over with, as well as it could possibly be done.
No need to do it over again.
Most people, trained in the expectation that winning takes a lot of hard work and effort. Try, under the yoke of this mis-conception, to "figure out" the winner by applying every method of past performance handicapping over again. Those that realize the truth can simply make a betting decision based on today's information. "You need to work hard", is just the original excuse and cover story used in not recognizing the natural limits of past performance handicapping, and the fact that it is already done.
For decades, the player wanted to play a game, so, horse racing sold him or her a newspaper and a lot of lip service about working hard. The 21st century result of that, is that while most players are in line ordering qwik-piks for a game they can't win, handicappers are up all night, re-handicapping and stressing on win bets for later today, if a six-pack of Frank's Energy Drinks can keep them awake. While the $1 Pick4 pays $56,167.80, because the most are just working too hard re-handicapping, instead of just focusing on making a good betting decision today.
Sure, on this day, the "Low" rating didn't win all of the races, only two, for $68.50. Just like the over-bet favorites, two for $7.30 (
one of which is the "Low" rating). Not even the "Simple" pick won all of the races, only four, for $120.90. While the well handicapped 2nd choice only won one for $10.60. Not even the "Key" horse won all of the races today, only three, for $65.00. While the 3rd ML choice did win two (one of which is a "Key"), for $22.20. Proving my point that the favorite and second choice are over-bet, leaving another consistent winner, the 3rd ML choice to point out the limits of past performance handicapping.
9th 9fT Par 100/85
3 $25.40 $12.80 $5.80
5 . $4.40 $3.00 | 10th 8fD Par 200/90
| 11th 8.5fT Par 100/85
|
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That brings me to a fourth Ability-X Ratings profile, that I have always called "Par". It is the one that covers the most ground, in that it may also be the "Simple", "Key", or "Low", in any and all combinations. When a player reaches the point that even more fun and more satisfaction are desired, the "Par" horse comes into consideration for analyzing the race with only the Ability-X Ratings chart.
It is true that any player, from total beginner, to the most advanced past performance handicapper... would have cleaned up on this day by simply making any betting decision, from the program picks and betting it. It is also true that many advanced past performance handicappers did re-handicap this Saturday card at Gulfstream Park. Many with many years experience, and supposedly, a high degree of education in horse race betting. Let that reality speak to you, when horse racing offers that you need to learn more handicapping, and work harder, in order to win (have fun, be satisfied).
When I first introduced Ability-X Ratings in 2007, I made several statements that were called "outlandish claims" by many handicappers. One of them was that Ability-X Ratings had taught me more about horse racing in a year, than 5 years of handicapping and a roomful of handicapping books. Today I stand by that "outlandish claim", and offer another.
Anyone can use Ability-X Ratings, and anyone can learn all that they might want to know about horse racing by using them. You don't have to bet a dime to learn this game. But, a complete and full understanding of the Ability-X Ratings "Par" would probably guide whomever possessed it, to 10 winners on the above Saturday card. Horse racing is the greatest wagering game that you can play.
In consideration of the above results, I seriously doubt that past performance handicapping could ever accomplish that. If that sounds a little "outlandish" to you, I can write the next blog on the recent 9 in a row for the "Simple"/"Key" from Mountaineer. Or, a couple of Superfectas at Charles Town... I might put both up here, anyway.
5th 8.5fT Par 100/85
2 $15.40 $7.40 $5.00
5 . $6.00 $4.80
$2 Exacta $86.20 2-5
$1 Pick 3 $3,549.10 14-5-2
$1 Pick 4 $56,167.80 7-14-5-2
$2 Daily Dble $315.60 5-2 | 6th 8fT Par 100/85
| 7th 6fD Par 320/97
| 8th 8fD Par 200/90
1 $2.10 $2.10 $2.10 |
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