In just a few hours, Churchill Downs will be starting the 2011 edition of Kentucky Derby fever. Most people like to get the earliest possible start, I like to wait until the gates open. Which will be just a few hours.
To celebrate, properly, and with recognition that the last three Kentucky Derby winners have been the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick. The All-tracks edition for today is available for $1. Nowhere near its immense value, but who has that kind of cash anyway?
I will be offering my perspectives on all the festivities throughout the week, and today's special is just the beginning. There is plenty more where that came from, and I expect to whip it all out as this special week progresses.
It just looks to me like maybe the longshots are going to let it rip today at Keeneland. It would be nice to end the festival de chalk, that has been the current spring meet, on a rip-snorting, light-up the board kind of day. People would be getting their fall gear together by July in anticipation of another go, at Keeneland.
Yesterday, two "Key" winners, and 1 winning "Simple" pick only added up to $15.00, profits from one Pick3 win supplied a few more dollars. The $50 winners have been a little on the scarce side this meeting.
Pimlico provided a "Simple" pick for $38.40 yesterday, and Tampa was lukewarm on the 27th also. The good thing about the lukewarm days is, that usually the pendulum swings back on the next day. So be prepared today. It could be a good one.
As is, often the case. Especially when there is a past performance format that is also an accurate measure of a thoroughbred's ability to run the distance today. Wouldn't it be nice, if everybody on the grounds, and on the planet had that kind of information? Wouldn't it be even nicer that such a format would allow and promote a legion of players, that knew how to play the game?
I would imagine that such a thing would grow the sport of horse racing to the point of being once again, the number one leisure time activity in all of North America. Well beyond the wildest expectations of those visionaries that founded Keeneland in 1936.
I once suggested that horse racing should actively teach people how to play the game, with simple information that would allow them to make intelligent wagers. Even if those people knew nothing about handicapping, and didn't want to know. A sentiment expressed widely by those of the younger set.
Today, I daresay that I still hold with this idea, I still believe that an interest in the game could quickly become a life-long interest in the sport. If only, that interest in the game were appealed to with simple, effective information. The kind that would enable players to be winners, more often, than not.
As the entire industry cringes at the truthful expression of my honest thoughts, at this point, I can't help but to wonder, why? The evidence is getting awfully old, and new evidence comes to all of us everyday. I guess that its okay if the industry wants to keep its collective head buried in a place where light doesn't penetrate. But, that is no good reason why players shouldn't drop their scratch-off nickels, to come a runnin' back to horse racing. The betting game that beats all others, hands down.... all day long.
If, you can just realize that the handicapping is already done. The player simply needs to make a betting decision. The evidence constantly shows, that isn't hard, and maybe it is even better, if it just makes basic sense. To hell with good handicapping sense... nobody can cash enough on "supposed to".
There are only a couple of "supposed to's" that really are supposed to be adhered to anyway. Horse racing is supposed to be FUN. And, it is supposed to be easy to make a betting decision, and a bet, with a chance to win. When the industry is done cringing, I hope that they can see, it is not too late to apply the KISS principle to horse racing.
Or, at least institute a change from, "kiss my butt, that information format wasn't obsolete in the '70's, and it is supposed to be still worth $10."
Because the 21st century truth is, that it isn't worth a bucket of spit if people are not easily having fun with it. And, gaining a reasonable chance to win, by using it. Simple.
Take, as an example, the races just last night at Charles Town Races, now called "Hollywood Casino". As if anybody has a shot, at a Casino. Cringe away, I play horses because it is still the best gaming deal there is. For these reasons:
HorsePlayerU.com - Ability-X Ratings
Tuesday 4/26/2011 - Charles Town - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 200+. The number in orange is the Ability-X rating "key" horse, and the one in red is the Ability-X "Simple"pick. I usually bet the simple pick.
Anybody could have picked this information up for $1.97, and decided to just bet the "Simple" pick to win, or, if they were out for fun and adventure, just bet the "Simple" and "Key" in the Pick-3 for 2x2x2 = 8 x $2 = $16 to be bet. The $3,307 return could have provided a lot of fun for several people. Without them having to burn up any brain cells, or strain any eyeballs, with handicapping.
As you say, "that must be a one time lucky shot", I invite you to scroll down the Twitter feed to see that the "Simple" pick, and "Key" horse win with amazingly consistent frequency, every day. Usually, at prices that are just not normally available to past performance handicappers. That obsolete format usually sticks them all on the same horse with the good looking record. The one that has been "running well lately", whatever that means in dollars and cents. Usually, not much.
Outlandish claim? The evidence continues:
5th 4.5fD Par 300/97
3 $25.60 $13.20 $7.40
1 . $50.80 $20.20
Run#
PST
ErlSpd
ML
Comp
421
5
97
3
518
364
4
96
8
460
361
1
96
15
457
416
9
95
12
511
416
10
95
6
511
326
2
91
2
417
447
6
91
20
538
120
8
0
4
120
110
3
0
10
110
117
7
0
12
117
7th 7fD Par 200/90
8 $49.40 $25.20 $19.40
Run#
PST
ErlSpd
ML
Comp
214
8
100
20
314
190
6
96
15
286
208
3
93
4
301
255
9
93
12
348
202
1
93
8
295
185
7
91
4
276
220
4
90
20
310
178
10
89
10
267
190
2
87
3
277
191
5
83
5
274
8th 4.5fD Par 300/97
1 $14.20 $6.80 $5.20
Run#
PST
ErlSpd
ML
Comp
411
4
101
5
512
345
1
100
3
445
427
3
100
6
527
407
10
100
6
507
281
5
98
10
379
352
2
98
4
450
402
7
97
5
499
388
6
96
12
484
371
8
95
12
466
298
11
93
8
391
While the guru's and practitioners of past performance handicapping have proclaimed that you need to be smart to play the horses, and they are, obviously the "really" smart people. Because they handicap and can tell you why their horse lost. You know, the one that was "supposed" to win.
It would be painfully obvious to the dumbest player on the planet, that the "Simple" pick is a good bet. Even if that world champion dumbass couldn't come to that conclusion, he or she could just bet, because it is the "Simple" pick.
You don't need to be smart, in order to have fun, and win at the horse races, if you can just realize that the handicapping is already done.
It turns out now, after all of the people that did realize that have been chased off to the lottery line, that they may have been the smartest people in the grandstand. They still are not letting handicapping get in the way of betting and having fun.
9th 7fD Par 200/90
8 Little Runner
13.60 7.20 4.60
4 Woo Woo Ann
15.00 6.80
$2 Exacta $160.20 8-4
$2 Pk3 $10,619.40 8-1-8
Run#
PST
ErlSpd
ML
Comp
215
1
96
6
311
210
8
95
4
305
168
2
95
3
263
230
10
92
20
322
288
6
91
15
379
242
11
91
10
333
257
9
90
10
347
228
5
90
4
318
210
4
89
15
299
228
7
86
4
314
Seems to me, that if the marketers of horse racing were smart enough to not stumble into a ditch, we could figure out a way to drop the "brainiac" requirement, and bring them all back to horse racing.
