And, the answer is yes, to my inquisitive Facebook friend,
Barry Dehart, there are many ways that you can tell which horse to bet in a race, a few good ones when you are using Ability-X Ratings. The rating that is too good to be believed, and that nobody "in the industry" wants you to have. In order to better explain myself on all fronts, I thought I would answer your questions with this example from Hawthorne yesterday. I hope that you don't mind.
The easiest thing to do, of course is just sit back and let the ratings do the heavy lifting while you just pay attention to what's going on. The design of the 2 Ability-X Ratings picks is to put some winners in your hand, even if you are a total beginner, without you knowing a damn thing about past performance handicapping. And, without you doing a single bit of it either. The reasons to avoid past performance handicapping become rather obvious to you when you consider that the top 3 ML didn't always win 67% of the races. Back in the 1880's, before there were past performances, the top 3 ML won over 80%.
The greatest lesson of horse racing is the same as the greatest of life itself, let reality speak to you, Barry. It brings the truth, and the wisdom of the ages. But, I digress.
In the Ability-X Ratings "
Simple" pick, and "
Key" horse you have the two best ratings, considering Early Speed from the last race, for today's race. One fast, last, and the other slow, last. These are the two components of every horse race that will dictate the results, every time. But, that may be an advanced concept for you to come to as you play the races. For now, you need only to understand that fast and slow are the axis that all of horse racing turns on. The latest proof is your beloved
Zenyatta.
Understand, that neither of these two are my picks, they are made by software, from the Ability-X Ratings themselves for the race today. Ability-X is not a speed rating, performance rating, or pace rating. It is an accurate reflection of a thoroughbred's ability to run a distance of ground. In all cases, on all surfaces, in any circumstances, for all classes. I know it sounds bold, but you'll see some evidence right here on this Hawthorne card. My point is that you can have faith in this number, as you will see, it will work for you, without folding up like a .50 cent lawn-chair.
Both of these horses, selected by mechanical means, are contenders today. Both have the ability to execute today's distance in winning fashion, both may be coming off of losing efforts, and in such cases, both are strong candidates for what handicappers call a "form reversal". Both are very likely to make adjustments to their respective last "runs". One usually having gone last, "too fast", and the other going last, "too slow" to win those efforts. Both will teach you how to analyze with respect to today's race by being the exacta, consistently. Both will reward you with payoffs that chalk bettors can only dream of. The record for the "
Simple" pick is $148 from Tampa, on 2/20/2011. There have been multiple $55, and $80 "
Simple" picks in the past week. But, I digress again.
Your question was how do you know which one to bet? For people just starting out, I recommend the "
Simple" pick, it is a consistent winner at higher value, that well supports the kind of "can't lose" progression that the TurfClubbers use every day. While they throw you a form, with the advise to work real hard to figure out the winner, and don't ever bet with progression. They don't want the competition.
HorsePlayerU.com - Ability-X Ratings
| Wednesday 3/23/2011 - Hawthorne - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 200+. The number in orange is the Ability-X rating "key" horse, and the one in red is the Ability-X "Simple"pick. I usually bet the simple pick. |
1st 8.5fD Par 100/90
5 Avantibdancing 8.20 3.40 3.20
| 2nd 6fD Par 320/97
4 Nut 'n Butter 5.00 2.80 2.40
| 3rd 8.5fD Par 100/90
3 $3.40 $2.20 $2.10
| 4th 8.5fD Par 100/90
2 Joy From Phoenix 16.80 10.00 4.20
|
5th 8.5fD Par 100/90
1 Massecuite 5.80 3.00 2.80
| 6th 6fD Par 320/97
2 Raspberry Jam 7.20 3.80 3.00
| 7th 6fD Par 320/97
4 $12.80 $7.80 $3.20
| 8th 8.5fD Par 100/90
1 $6.00 $4.60 $3.80
|
A very high percentage of these first time starters, win and hit the board for exotics, especially when fields are weak or chaotic. For races that include a coupled entry, the program #'s may be different from the post positions listed here. © Jon Luman 2011 jon@HorsePlayerU.com http://horseplayeru.com/lately.htm
I could explain a lot more, but rather then do a full book here, I'll just tell you how you can play the game while you learn everything that it can teach you, and everything that you want to know. We've decided to bet the "Simple" pick in can't lose fashion. For that you need to set a goal, per race, and you need a bank that is X250 of that goal. Yes, that's overkill, but we are betting horse races, and you want to keep your head straight at all times, even when you do have multiple edges. So, let's make the goal $2 per race, set a bank at $500, and prepare to work like Warren Buffet, at Hawthorne.
Ist race, the "Simple" pick is #6 at 6-1. You only need $2, so you can bet $2 and have extra, if you win. You don't, so the $2 you bet is added to the $2 you didn't make, and that $4 is added to the goal for the 2nd race for $6. The "Simple" pick is #5 at 6-1, so here goes another $2 on #5, who is still running, so the 3rd race goal is $6+$2+$2=$10. The "Simple" pick is again #5 at 6-1, so here goes another $2 on #5, who gets beat by the "Key". So, now you've got $10+$2+$2=$14 as a goal for the 4th race. The "Simple" pick is again #5 at only 2-1 this time, so you've got to bet at least $7, but, probably should make it $8 since this horse is a 2-1 favorite. Another $8 sails away, as another favorite bites the dust.
Now your goal is $14+$8+$2=$24 for the 5th. Where the "Simple" pick is #6 again at 6-1, keeping your bet down to only $4, and you finally are betting a "Simple" pick with a low rating. Not that it matters, as it loses too, but what do you care? You are betting a consistent horse every time, that is working for you, even while losing. Now you've got a goal of $24+$4+$2=$30 for the 6th race, and you are due. The "Simple" pick is again #5 at 2-1, so you may as well round up again with $16 for a bet. Too bad, as that 2-1 #5 loses also. Now you are at $30+$16+$2=$48, for the 7th. The "Simple" pick is #4 at 4-1, calling for a $12 bet. It wins, paying $12.80 X 6 for $76.80. You put $46.00 back in the bank to replenish it to $500, and you have a profit of $30.80. A $2 bet on the "Simple" pick #1 for the final race throws another $4.00 on that. Congratulations Warren, you made double the goal, welcome to the Turf Club.
Now, for what you can learn from losing, and the reason that I have done the pink high-lighting on this page. If you can remove the format of past performances from your view, as I have done for 4 years now, You can very soon see the real secret of horse racing that is revealed by Ability-X Ratings. That is, while all individual horse races are in themselves unique events, wherein winners are separated from losers by fractions of both time and inches, in general, the winning "run" is quite similar. And, the execution of that benchmark "run" is the goal of every craftsman that trains thoroughbred race horses. This is the only truth of horse racing that lends any predictability to the game. It is what you are betting on, and where a horse race, is always a horse race, it is this thin shred of predictability that makes horse racing the greatest, most challenging, and most rewarding game that mankind has ever devised. Featuring mankind's best partner, the horse.
While losing the 1st race, you can see that the results point to the winner of the 8th race. The results of the 3rd, 4th, and 5th confirm that the Ability-X Ratings Early Speed (ES) Par is solid as a rock for Hawthorne. A more accurate "run" Par might be 110 for Hawthorne in particular. The winner of the 2nd, tells you that the national Par of 320/97 is likely quite accurate for betting money at Hawthorne. The winner of the 6th, and 7th confirm that, as do many others that have been added to the list, over the years. As you can see by this example, the horse closest to "Par" would be one that you would always want to include in any Pick bets at Hawthorne. And, all other tracks, this example also goes for all other tracks.
Play the game with Ability-X Ratings, Barry. Both the ratings and the game itself will teach you which horse to bet, and you can't fail either, because the lessons will keep coming until you know them. Let the game teach you, all you have to do is practice, and you can do that now without the guesswork. And, don't forget, Barry, you can get Ability-X Ratings for all tracks for the whole month, for only $39.95, $5.95 for all tracks daily. It's the best deal ever, and the handicapping is already done!
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