Hey Barry, I thought you should check this out, so you could see what a great job Tampa Bay Downs is doing, on keeping new people away from horse racing, and keeping inquisitive folks, like yourself, dazed and confused. With the industry-wide, incessant mantra that betting on horse races, must make "good handicapping sense". Let me first lay some foundation for your consideration today, by directing your attention to a little dust covered booklet from the 1880's called
"Points" for 1885.
No wonder you can't find that at a race track gift shop, that little piece of information is more valuable than a roomful of handicapping books. It is amazing to think, that after 116 years of practice at past performance handicapping, the winning percentage of the Morning Line top 3 has actually decreased. After all of that time and clear demonstration of failure, the horse racing industry still pushes past performance handicapping.
By clear demonstration, I mean when the "official" track handicapper comes on the video feed and tells you to bet the same horse that everyone else is betting. Sure, it will win 3 or 4 times a day, but you still lose your shirt, and you can't come close to betting some real contenders today because it doesn't make "good handicapping sense" to bet those. Although, those horses win with the same consistency of the "past performances" favorite. Think about it, back when there were no "past performances" to handicap with, the top 3 ML won over 80% of the races. Now, after 116 years of "work harder" past performance handicapping, the percentage is around 70%.
That proves a couple of things, first, past performance handicapping is a waste of time and money, second, under-bet horses win with the same consistency that over-bet horses do. The past performance favorite is over-bet in practically every race these days. It wins around 33% of the time, no matter how much you bet on it, Barry. The under-bet horses will win with about the same 33% consistency. These are the points to be considered by all sharp consumers like you,
Barry Dehart.
All of this goes back to your original question, Barry, "Which horse do I bet?" Today we are going to look at removing some of the obstacles to making clear and intelligent betting decisions, so that you, and hopefully many others will have an answer directly at hand, and firmly in mind, very soon. While past performance handicapping itself is one of those obstacles, it is not the largest obstacle. The largest obstacle is your perspective, the idea and belief that has been put in your mind by the horse racing information industry that an intelligent wager, must make "good handicapping sense".
I have decided that I really need to drop all subtlety in my attempts to get this information to you Barry, for your consideration. In considering the idea that an "intelligent wager" also "must make good handicapping sense", we need to strongly consider the reality that manifests to us daily. 7 out of 10 horses that "make good handicapping sense" lose the race today. It seems to me, that the first thing we need to do, in our quest for making "intelligent wagers", is to equip ourselves with tools that enable us to always make intelligent wagers.
If the horse that makes the most "good handicapping sense" loses 7 out of 10, or even 6, it would appear that this requirement should be the first thing to toss in some deep water. Obviously, while "good handicapping sense" might be good for inspiring newspaper sales, it is a poor criteria for an intelligent wager. When you are betting that a race horses good record will continue today, you are betting against the driving force of organized horse racing. What is that driving force? Change.
As much as people dis-like change, and with it being universally un-welcome everywhere, would you bet that it will happen, or that it won't? Which would be the "intelligent wager?" If you are thinking that betting on change at the horse races might be the most "intelligent wager." I would tend to agree. Now, if we can add to that, betting on change, according to all the things that stay the same, that could be a very intelligent way of betting on the horse races. But, past performance handicapping will never enable you to do that well.
So Barry, at least for this short example I have for you from Friday at Tampa, let's dump the "past performance handicapping". and the "good handicapping sense" to see what the possibilities are when you are enabled to make "intelligent wagers" based on what you can't dig out of past performances with a snow shovel. The horses ability to run. Expressed accurately by
Ability-X Ratings, not handicapping, a perspective based on horse racing reality, the "run" of the horse. The rating that enables you to play the game. Hey, it's all part of the message.
HorsePlayerU.com - Ability-X Ratings
Friday 3/25/2011 - Tampa Bay Downs - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 200+. The number in orange is the Ability-X rating "key" horse, and the one in red is the Ability-X "Simple |
1st 8.1fD Par 100/90
7 Miss Unbridled's $117.00 $49.60 $21.20 | 2nd 5fD Par 340/97
9 Joe Short Pants $18.20 $9.00 $3.40
8 . $8.80 $3.40
3 . . $2.10
$2 Daily Dbl $1,326.80 7-9 | 3rd 6.5fD Par 340/94
2 Pyriteville 6.60 3.40 2.60
$2 Daily Dbl $102.40 9-2 | 4th 7fD Par 150/90
2 Costly Dubai 30.40 12.20 7.00
$2 Pick 3 $1,348.00 9-2-2
$2 Daily Dbl $110.40 2-2 |
5th 8.5fT Par 100/85
8 Quiet Wave 8.60 4.40 3.20
$2 Daily Dbl $172.80 2-8 | 6th 6.5fD Par 340/94
Chief Talkeetna $9.00 $4.60 $3.20
$2 Pick3 $1,536.40 2-8-4
$2 Pick4 $3,903.40 2-2-8-4
$2 Daily Dbl $53.40 8-4 | 7th 8.1fD Par 100/90
8 Smooth Connection $8.80 $4.80 $3.60
$2 Pick3 $243.80 8-4-8
$2 Daily Dbl $65.00 4-8 | 8th 8fT Par 100/85
6 Gimmearide 5.20 2.80 2.40
$2 Daily Dbl $33.00 8-6 |
9th 8.1fD Par 100/90 3 Round Trip Loner 4.60 2.60 2.20 $2 Pick3 $94.40 8-6-3 $2 Daily Dbl $10.40 6-3 | 10th 5fT Par 340/95 7 Street Contender 7.40 3.40 2.60 $2 Daily Dbl $21.00 3-7 | 11th 5.5fD Par 330/97 10 Lake Louise 5.20 3.60 2.60 $2 Pick3 $51.00 3-7-10 $2 Pick4 $190.80 6-3-7-10 $2 Pick6 $4,020.20 4-8-6-3-7-10 $2 Daily Dbl $21.60 7-10 |
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A very high percentage of these first time starters, win and hit the board for exotics, especially when fields are weak or chaotic. For races that include a coupled entry, the program #'s may be different from the post positions listed here. © Jon Luman 2011
jon@HorsePlayerU.com http://horseplayeru.com/abilityx.htm
Going back to the eternal question, which horse should you bet? Before I really get into it, there is another idea I'll ask you to dump. It is that idea, that again, has likely been put in your head by the horse racing information industry, that you can "figure out" which horse is going to win. Dump that, because you can't. I don't want to get all negative on you either, but, the truth is, if the people that put that idea in your head could "figure it out", they wouldn't be selling newspapers. Sure, anybody could make a living on a couple of winners a day, and many people do. But, they don't spend their time trying to "figure out" which horse is going to win a race. Neither should you.
Now, if you just want some good horses to bet on in your leisure time, I recommend the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick, and the "Key" horse. As you can see from the results above, either one will win consistently and put money in your hand, fun and profit. You can even bet the two of them in many exotics, like the Exacta, Daily Double, and Pick3/4/5/6. These horses consistently win, and they consistently pay better prices because they are selected based on "run", not record. They are often from the "other" 33% of consistent winners that are not over-bet. With the odds on your side, it is much more difficult to fail when you are consistently betting under-bet horses, that can win.
If you are going to bet one horse to win, whatever perspective you follow, will likely lose more races than it wins. There is no one size fits all in betting horses. Just look at the percentages for just about everyone involved, 25% is gold. If that is as good as it gets, you want to bet a horse that will be paying 4-1 or better. Even at that you see a big improvement when you get away from the over-bet, public, "good past performance and handicapping sense" horses as the subjects of your win wagers. This is a great way to play the game, and win, if you do not wish to spend more time on it, and make a study of it.
If you do want to improve on this, and you are willing to put some study into it, study horse racing, not handicapping. The reason that I say this is because smart people have studied handicapping for over 100 years. What have they learned about horse racing? Nothing. If they studied horse racing for just a few weeks, they could learn a great deal quickly. So can you, Barry. Because horse racing hasn't really changed since day one. Every horse on the track is trying to hit that winning "run" today. Which one will do it, I don't know. But, I do know that if I really want to have it covered reasonably well, I'd better bet on three, and I will still likely lose a few races. I will have a good shot, if I can consider the horses actual ability to run, and the way that they ran their last race. If I consider past performances and "good handicapping sense" I might as well burn my money for firewood.
Now, if you do want to improve on this, and you don't mind putting some study time into it, then you could get the best answer to your question by doing just that. And, if that is what you've got in mind, Barry, then you can start right here with the above card from
Tampa Bay Downs. It's not that win betting is too much of a challenge, it is more that the reward isn't there with all of the over-bet favorites in there that do win. It's even worse these days, with race tracks engineering a higher favorite winning percentage by reducing field sizes. But, the Pick3 bet does supply a remedy. With the Pick3 and Pick4, tere is a good reason to bet those short priced over-bet horses to connect your Pick bets together from good price to good price.
When you can pick the contenders on a more real criteria than "good handicapping sense" it is a great way to leverage relatively small wagers into some large payoffs. Of course, you already know that from the Friday at Hawthorne that I sent you last week. Where a $16 ticket with the "Simple" and "Key" won the $4,700.00 Pk4. That's pretty good, but as above, I really prefer being inclusive and going after Picks with 3 horses per race. And, as much as I rant about them, you really do need the over-bet horses in if you are going to seriously wager on Picks. Actually, I love it, because the Pick3 and Pick4 is the only wager where I can bet the favorite, mostly because I can 2 horses against it too. Reality does state that they will win 3 or 4 races today. Knowing that you can put some rewarding "Simple" picks and "Key" horses between them, just makes it better.
When you can make all of the 3 contender picks based on their ability to "run", instead of "good handicapping sense", it can turn to solid gold by winning everything on the card, as above. Study it, Barry, it is the "Simple" (fast) and "Key" (slow) that you are familiar with, the middle speed horse that I selected is based on the ratings of the top 2 on the chart, and the bottom 2. They are also the likely middle speed of today's race. The 3X3X3 method won every DD, and Pick bet on the card. As you can see, it will give you some favorites, but more importantly, it is high percentage for giving you the winner. This is the modern win bet, and it takes just a little analysis, that you can easily learn by playing the "Simple" and/or the "Key" horse. A total beginner can attack the Pick3 after a few days of studying "run" while winning.
So, check it out Barry, see if the top 2 and the bottom 2 "run" ratings on the chart for each race guide you to the same middle speed, 3rd horse for all of these pick bets. Everybody, leave me some commentary, this is the technique that is featured in "Winning the Pick3 II". It will be ready for Keeneland Spring '11.
