Ability-X Ratings - Going beyond the limits of handicapping.

I've always thought this would be good news for the players, and, it seems that practically no one in the horse racing industry agrees with me. I realize this often... only to affirm my original thinking that this should be good news for the players. Of course, the publishers of horse racing seem to prefer to only publish what is good news for them. So, here I am with another hard hitting article to back up my outlandish claims.

And... attempt to spread good news for the horseplayer.

In keeping with my tradition of only making the kind of claims that will draw endless "how dare yous" from various handicapping circles, today I examine my own (greatest ratings that mankind has yet devised), Ability-X Ratings. Strictly in the interest of providing you with the kind of hard-hitting evidence that will enable you to judge for yourself.

For today's examination session, we go to Laurel Park for the 3rd Race February 2nd, 2011, to show how one familiar with Ability-X Ratings could see this result. Which usually would confound the best of past performance handicappers.

2nd - 8.5fD Par 100/90 2  Calvin B   4.40  3.20  2.60 3  Rica's Grandsteed  5.20  3.00 5  Bold Attempt  6.80 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 180 5 93 12 273 126 2 92 2 218 210 8 89 30 299 130 7 88 6 218 130 4 85 10 215 122 6 85 3 207 125 3 83 8 208 121 1 81 4 202 We come up to the 3rd race after a favorite & simple pick win in the second. This may be the first 9f race at Laurel this year, and we see that the only entrant NOT above "Par" is the "Key" horse #3. Experience tells us that above "Par" numbers in general tell us that this field is lower than average class. The results of the 2nd race show that the "Simple" pick, #5 is probably a good number for a lower class 9f race.

3rd -  9fD Par 120/90 4  Canadian Home Run  57.80  21.80  47.60 5  Sir Lancelord     4.80    14.00 3  Prime Leader    46.40 $2 Exacta    $245.20      4-5  $1 Superfecta $5,749.10 4-5-3-7   $2 Trifecta   $2,774.80    4-5-3 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 144 1A 91 2 235 126 5 90 2 216 146 2 90 5 236 137 7 88 3 225 157 4 88 20 245 142 1 85 2 227 -137 3 67 30 -70 Considering that #5 in the 2ndR came in 3rd at 180/93, all of the entrants for the 3rdR could have good numbers for 9f. If we went back to examine previous 2 turn distances with cheaper fields, we should be able to find evidence as good as the 2ndR for guidance.

Looking back as far as opening day, we find another 2 races from 1/20/2011, that hold some valuable information. They are both 8.5f with similar class fields - 8k - 10k Maiden and open events.

3rd -  8.5fD Par 100/90 2  Silver Daughter  15.60   4.20   2.40 3  Home Grown Lass 3.00  2.10 4  Swales Park    2.40 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 170 4 100 3 270 186 7 91 6 277 184 3 91 2 275 133 1 91 15 224 160 2 90 4 250 160 6 90 20 250 133 5 89 10 222 From the results of the 3rdR, we can gather that an accurate Par for this class could be as high as 160. Can you base such decisions on the results of one race? Apparently, YES when you understand that the Ability-X "run" number always reflects the horses ability to run, as the 5thR again verifies. The key is in understanding that lower classes will run generally higher numbers. As you play your favorite track with Ability-X Ratings, you can set the Pars according to the actual abilities of the different classes at your track.

5th - 8.5fD Par 100/90 2  Shiloh's Pride 51.20  16.00 9.00 3  Cajun Quickstep  4.00 4.40 6  Honoring Donald   8.80 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 105 6 92 8 197 112 3 91 1 203 129 8 90 30 219 104 7 89 5 193 143 5 88 30 231 56 1 87 1 143 159 2 85 30 244 The "good" Ability-X Rating for Laurel Park 8.5f - 9f, 8 - 10K claiming is 155 -160. With 3 out of 4 results providing $134.60 in mutuel payoffs,  you can bet on it!

There are no secrets with Ability-X Ratings, and with horse racing there is only the unknown. With the "Simple" pick, "Key" horse, and "Par", you don't need to know anything about horse racing to use and win with Ability-X. But, using Ability-X ratings will expose to you every unknown in horse racing until you know as much as you want. That is why they are the greatest ratings, because they will teach you all that past performance handicapping has not, and can not.

This outlandish claim is 3 years old now, and still stands as solid as the first time I made it. Bet on Ability, it will never let you down.