Sleep tight..... all of horse racing's secrets are still safe.

Of course... the biggest secret of all. Yes, you can win playing the horses. It is starting to look like no one will ever figure this one out. Sure, all things are possible where desire exists, but that may be the biggest hindrance in laying bare the greatest of all secrets in the game. You might notice that I wrote game... not sport. For regular people, games are played, sports are watched. With that in mind, it is no big wonder why two generations of players are playing the lottery, instead of the horses.

Everybody loves to play, and it could be said that horseplay is a huge favorite, since it is the most forbidden type of play. You never see a sign around the school, or on a list of  NO's in the company personnel manual that says - NO LOTTERY PLAY. But, NO HORSEPLAY usually makes the top 3. It could be said, that if there are any natural-born horseplayers out there, they are dissuaded from birth, and any natural enthusiasm dampened by the incessant repeat of an inaccurate message.

You can't just come in here and play this sport, sport. You've got to be a serious player, if you want to win at the horse races. We aren't just playing around here, this game is serious business. It takes a lot of hard work, to play the races. Have fun, just remember, if you lost, it is because you aren't playing serious enough, and you need to hunker down and learn handicapping.

This sport is only for the kind of hard working handicappers that are willing to stick with it until they get it right. We aren't playing games around here, boy... this is for serious handicappers, that know how to play the game.

I suppose that if I had actually listened to this, I'd be standing in the lottery line, hollering for a qwik-pik myself. Too bad, that the biggest secret in horse racing is that the attitude above has created a situation where the people that horse racing most needs in its seats, the casual, fun-seeking player is nowhere close to being a horseplayer. Or, wanting to be.

It has gotten so bad, that horse racing never even addresses the casual player, never talking to him or her, throwing out a casual invitation or two. During a pre-race show from a major track, the talk was about how the new Pick-6 had been hit twice already. As though it would be impossible for someone to just throw together some numbers to win the difficult bet. Said the male commentator, "We've got some good handicappers here." Apparently, players can't even get in, much less, do some actual winning.

Funny, and sad at the same time, if only horse racing would roll out a red carpet and welcome players. If only horse racing could promote and encourage horseplay, throw some numbers out, have some fun, tell players that it is okay to box a 3-5-7 Trifecta, just because those are good numbers.

What would be the harm? Announce that if the 20-1 #7 horse doesn't win the 7th race, it's a free beer for everybody, what would be so bad in promoting a little horseplay. Maybe some players would come back... just for the fun.

This is the new high payoff record for Ability-X Ratings.

Tampa Bay Downs - Sunday 2/20/2011

8  Drive Me East   148.20    68.80     20.60

1st 5.5fD Par 330/97

Run#

PST

ErlSpd

ML

Comp

421

8

96

30

517

498

6

96

30

594

351

2

94

4

445

395

9

93

12

488

388

10

92

6

480

383

4

91

3

474

376

7

90

15

466

384

5

90

8

474

365

3

89

5

454

399

1

88

4

487

 

The 73 - 1 odds on the #8 would suggest that the serious, hard-working handicappers didn't bet much money on this winner. Perhaps, they didn't find the idea prudent. In this case, I just don't think it would hurt anything at all to have maybe a thousand or two players on hand. They might bet this horse just because it is the simple pick. Could be fun to cash one of these. Maybe some of the NO HORSEPLAY signs should come down, to be replaced with... Players Needed - No experience necessary, we train.

 

Let go of the secret, horse racing is the best of the wagering games, and anyone can win, playing horses.

 

This message is brought to you by - Save Hialeah Racing, and A Fight to Save Horse Racing, join us in bringing horse racing back to prominence as America's greatest game.

Ability-X Ratings - Going beyond the limits of handicapping.

I've always thought this would be good news for the players, and, it seems that practically no one in the horse racing industry agrees with me. I realize this often... only to affirm my original thinking that this should be good news for the players. Of course, the publishers of horse racing seem to prefer to only publish what is good news for them. So, here I am with another hard hitting article to back up my outlandish claims.

And... attempt to spread good news for the horseplayer.

In keeping with my tradition of only making the kind of claims that will draw endless "how dare yous" from various handicapping circles, today I examine my own (greatest ratings that mankind has yet devised), Ability-X Ratings. Strictly in the interest of providing you with the kind of hard-hitting evidence that will enable you to judge for yourself.

For today's examination session, we go to Laurel Park for the 3rd Race February 2nd, 2011, to show how one familiar with Ability-X Ratings could see this result. Which usually would confound the best of past performance handicappers.

2nd - 8.5fD Par 100/90 2  Calvin B   4.40  3.20  2.60 3  Rica's Grandsteed  5.20  3.00 5  Bold Attempt  6.80 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 180 5 93 12 273 126 2 92 2 218 210 8 89 30 299 130 7 88 6 218 130 4 85 10 215 122 6 85 3 207 125 3 83 8 208 121 1 81 4 202 We come up to the 3rd race after a favorite & simple pick win in the second. This may be the first 9f race at Laurel this year, and we see that the only entrant NOT above "Par" is the "Key" horse #3. Experience tells us that above "Par" numbers in general tell us that this field is lower than average class. The results of the 2nd race show that the "Simple" pick, #5 is probably a good number for a lower class 9f race.

3rd -  9fD Par 120/90 4  Canadian Home Run  57.80  21.80  47.60 5  Sir Lancelord     4.80    14.00 3  Prime Leader    46.40 $2 Exacta    $245.20      4-5  $1 Superfecta $5,749.10 4-5-3-7   $2 Trifecta   $2,774.80    4-5-3 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 144 1A 91 2 235 126 5 90 2 216 146 2 90 5 236 137 7 88 3 225 157 4 88 20 245 142 1 85 2 227 -137 3 67 30 -70 Considering that #5 in the 2ndR came in 3rd at 180/93, all of the entrants for the 3rdR could have good numbers for 9f. If we went back to examine previous 2 turn distances with cheaper fields, we should be able to find evidence as good as the 2ndR for guidance.

Looking back as far as opening day, we find another 2 races from 1/20/2011, that hold some valuable information. They are both 8.5f with similar class fields - 8k - 10k Maiden and open events.

3rd -  8.5fD Par 100/90 2  Silver Daughter  15.60   4.20   2.40 3  Home Grown Lass 3.00  2.10 4  Swales Park    2.40 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 170 4 100 3 270 186 7 91 6 277 184 3 91 2 275 133 1 91 15 224 160 2 90 4 250 160 6 90 20 250 133 5 89 10 222 From the results of the 3rdR, we can gather that an accurate Par for this class could be as high as 160. Can you base such decisions on the results of one race? Apparently, YES when you understand that the Ability-X "run" number always reflects the horses ability to run, as the 5thR again verifies. The key is in understanding that lower classes will run generally higher numbers. As you play your favorite track with Ability-X Ratings, you can set the Pars according to the actual abilities of the different classes at your track.

5th - 8.5fD Par 100/90 2  Shiloh's Pride 51.20  16.00 9.00 3  Cajun Quickstep  4.00 4.40 6  Honoring Donald   8.80 Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp 105 6 92 8 197 112 3 91 1 203 129 8 90 30 219 104 7 89 5 193 143 5 88 30 231 56 1 87 1 143 159 2 85 30 244 The "good" Ability-X Rating for Laurel Park 8.5f - 9f, 8 - 10K claiming is 155 -160. With 3 out of 4 results providing $134.60 in mutuel payoffs,  you can bet on it!

There are no secrets with Ability-X Ratings, and with horse racing there is only the unknown. With the "Simple" pick, "Key" horse, and "Par", you don't need to know anything about horse racing to use and win with Ability-X. But, using Ability-X ratings will expose to you every unknown in horse racing until you know as much as you want. That is why they are the greatest ratings, because they will teach you all that past performance handicapping has not, and can not.

This outlandish claim is 3 years old now, and still stands as solid as the first time I made it. Bet on Ability, it will never let you down.

Horse racing should be marketed as a game.... can we start now???

Before the last couple of thousand toss their past performance newspapers and head for the casino and lottery line? It seems that the biggest no-brainer of the 20th century may actually be getting some traction, one decade into the 21st century.

What a swell idea, I wonder if it might have a chance to catch on with the "official" horse racing marketing folks. You know, those people that think telling the prospective new "horseplayer" to "learn to handicap" IS marketing the game of horse racing.

It may be a sport to observers, but for players who actually bet money on the events, it is a game. Whether it is a game within a sport, or a sport within a game is really irrelevant, even though many have debated the issue for years. It is to you, whatever you want it to be. All tastes can be accommodated by horse racing. Especially here in the 21st century.

The sporting folks can gather to take in all of the pageantry and majesty they can handle, either at the tracks Turf Club or at home right on their monitors. The horseplayers can also enjoy horseplay to their hearts content at all of those same locations, plus the local OTB. I'm assuming few sporting folks come down to the OTB, because they are notably short of pageantry. Majesty is also in short supply, except for that guy that thinks he is king of the seats.

But, where horse racing (management) has always been open to all comers, it has long ignored the wants of the player. The last time the "sport" needed to be resusitated from a near death experience, the revival came about through the implementation of Pari-Mutuel wagering. With this, the basic financial support shifted from the observers and fans of the "sport" to the players of the "game".

With this shift, the "Sport of Kings" essentially became the "Game for all". At least for purposes of moving forward with positive growth as a leisure time diversion, participated in by the masses. Sure, it grew and expanded as a "sport", because it was the only "game" in town. Players have abandoned horse racing in the past 20 years as quickly as other games have become available. Even though horse racing still, and has always offered more of what the player wants.

But, the wagonloads of goods that horse racing can deliver, seems to have gotten lost on the road to the market. It may also be, that the goods have never gotten out of the barn.

Player want number one, to be engaged in a game. Number two, to have a reasonable chance of winning while engaging in the game. In modern times, those that have inherited the job of marketing horse racing, might take notice that horse racing has been abandoned by many just because other games deliver want number one. To be engaged in a game. Apparently, casino and lottery players are willing to forego want number two, if they can just play a game.

Hopefully, with the effort of guys like Derek Simon of Twinspires.com, the marketing types can do the simple arithmetic here and conclude that marketing horse racing as a game, is a strategy long overdue. Maybe some focus on this idea will expose to them that horse racing, while always marketing as a sport, has completely missed the opportunity to get players engaged in a game.